伦敦高档新公寓期房市场出现价格向下抖动,投资者们不知道都在想什么?

很多中介说伦敦高档新公寓期房(off plan flat)很多投资者在降价脱手,看起来Brexit正在导致房市销售困难。大家都知道投资这些公寓的大部分是海外买家,因为是期房所以房价还没有付清,按理说英镑跌这么多对海外投资者来说余款便宜很多了,但他们不想等到交余款而选择撤,房价跌了英镑跌了他们的损失是很大的,不知道他们都在想什么?我猜想是两个原因(1)Brexit以后对伦敦房市的未来没有信心,这些高档新公寓在未来1到2年内跌20%不是没有可能,法国银行SocGen预测50%,(2)很多开发商可能干不下去不等房子盖好就倒闭了(大家等着看烂尾楼吧),英镑跌建筑材料涨价开发商成本上升,Off plan卖不动资金流枯竭。 {:5_145:}

好几个坛友不是说中国很多人想趁英镑跌来伦敦买房嘛,现在房价跌了赶快鼓动中国土豪来血拼吧,告诉他们伦敦房子都白菜价了。 {:5_142:}

Jitters in London luxury flat market as investors sell for ‘bargain’ prices Apartments bought off-plan offered for sale at less than price originally agreed with developers as data suggests Brexit vote could lead to housing sales slump

The first real signs of distress in the market for luxury London apartments are starting to emerge, as investors who agreed to buy homes off-plan are starting to sell them on for less than they agreed to pay for them.

Property websites are now advertising many unfinished flats being offered for sale by the buyers who originally agreed deals with the developers.

Estate agents and developers are generally coy about how much sellers were expecting to pay on completion, but some listings reveal that people are selling at or below the original purchase price, hoping the “bargain” price might pull in a new buyer.

This week, estate agent LondonDom.com was advertising several properties in central London for less than the original price charged by the developer. These included a three-bedroom apartment in the Battersea Riverlight development being marketed at a guide price of £1,890,000. The listing for the flat, which will not be ready to move into until 2017, described the sale as a “Hot EXCLUSIVE deal – now asking less than the original purchase price from the developer in 2013.” The listing has now been changed to describe it as “well priced”.

Another “sub-penthouse” apartment in the Riverlight development, which is part of the vast Nine Elms development area that has sprung up on the south bank of the Thames, is ready to move into and is being marketed at £1.1m – £75,000 less than the original sale price. The agent’s description read: “Urgent sale – asking now LOWER that the original purchase price of 2013, which was £1,175,000. Due completion – NOW.”

George Shishkovsky, managing director of LondonDom, insisted the sales were not a result of the UK’s Brexit vote or a fall in confidence in the market. “It’s all about people’s circumstances,” he said. “Usually people buying off-plan do so two or three years before completion and in that time circumstances can change.”
Advertisement

The reductions mean sellers will need to make up the difference between the price they get and that they have agreed with the developer. Shishkovsky also pointed out that the falling pound meant that overseas investors selling for less than they had agreed to pay were not necessarily making a loss. “If someone bought for £1m and is now selling for £980,000 that £20,000 will be easily absorbed by the exchange rate when they convert it back.” But the lower prices do demonstrate that the era of soaring prices seems to have come to an end.

Henry Pryor, who buys homes in London for wealthy clients, said he believed that the top end of the market had peaked and that currency gains wouldn’t make up for the fact that many flats had simply been overpriced: “Sterling-based property may be 10% cheaper for foreign buyers but much of it was 30% overpriced.” He added: “Expect to see more of this as the post-Brexit [vote] reality bites.”

Elsewhere in London, a flat in the super-luxe One Blackfriars development is being advertised for “less than the developer’s price”, and the agent selling it said that its £2.65m price tag was less than the original buyer had paid. He also cited personal circumstances as the reason for the sale.

Reports suggest there has been a sharp slowdown in the number of sales in London’s new-build market. According to research by consultancy firm Molior London, developers sold 4,600 new-build homes in the April to June period including off-plan sales, a 23% fall from the figure of just under 6,000 in the first quarter of the year.
Advertisement

Faisal Durrani, head of research at property firm Cluttons, said that some development projects are now likely to be abandoned. He had expected around 60,000 new properties to complete between 2016 and the end of 2018, but now says: “It’s unlikely that this will materialise, especially if the projects are yet to come out of the ground.”

Durrani said the prime central London market had been slowing for more than a year, but had been “amplified” by the referendum result. “We are at the stage where a slight correction was inevitable and may actually be positive for the market. It will help with affordability issues and may in fact help with the long stalled natural recycling times of property on the market, resulting in a more regular level of transactions,” he said.
The stories you need to read, in one handy email
Read more

“Data from Molior shows that the total number of new-build transactions in the first half of this year is at the highest level in seven years, with the exception of 2015; the total number of new-build transactions in the second quarter was however at the lowest quarterly level in three years.”

The French bank Société Générale said last week that prices in London’s most expensive boroughs could slump by as much as 50% in the wake of the vote for Brexit.

Other agents are also listing properties in the Battersea Nine Elms area at their original off-plan sales prices. In the Capital Building in Embassy Gardens – near the new US embassy building – a ninth-floor apartment is on the market for just over £2m, with the listings stating that it is the original purchase price from 2012. Meanwhile a one-bedroom apartment over at One Tower Bridge, due to complete in September, is listed at £980,000, “below the original price of 2014”, while a two-bedder in Westminster will make its original buyer no profit if it sells for the asking price of just over £2m.

Jonathan Hopper, of property buying agents Garrington, said new-build flats were likely to “suffer disproportionately” from market falls. “A lot of investors buying in London were doing so for capital appreciation rather than yield, and with capital appreciation under the spotlight they are choosing not to buy,” he said. “Domestic demand has come to a shuddering halt and that void has not yet been filled by international buyers.” Hopper said the stamp duty changes had offset the fall in the pound and meant that London did not look as cheap to foreign buyers as during the financial crisis in 2009.

He said discounts had started ahead of the Brexit vote. “We bought [at a discount] for a couple of clients in the six months before Brexit,” he said. “The sellers were international buyers who had basically got it wrong – they thought that London was always going to keep going up and then they realised that wasn’t the case.”

Hopper said some developers were discounting in a bid to finish on sites that were already half-sold. “They have already paid for the development and it’s now a matter of how much profit they are going to make,” he said. Hopper added that buyers should beware of a “concentration of risk. If there is a large development with a multiple units they could be vulnerable to a fairly significant realignment of pricing”.

哎,打击了俺蠢蠢欲动的小心思,50per?要死人呀

烂尾楼能住么?能的话干嘛通知国内土豪扫底,这儿都不够分了。毕竟是伦敦的房。跌的更猛烈点吧。跌到底多买几套。

图片上这三四栋基本卖完了吧

我要入的开发商咬死不肯卖,也不肯降价,我等着。。。

看看有没有人转手期房

没有,今年刚开的盘,还有一年多才能全部完成。有几个剩下的,户型不好朝向也不好,就是降价我也不要。我看他们卖不掉也不着急。

大神您贴的都是国际炒家豪赌的那种,那愿赌服输。本来刚需也不会去买这类的,刚需只会接受我这种一般小公寓。。。我再买也是中档小公寓,自己住很爽的那种,保证地段和品质。上百万的高档楼盘本来就炒过头了,没有脱欧,快交房了这帮人也是要转手的。。。

一百万跌到五十万,那五十万的跌到25万?我立马入,开趴。

悲观的情绪会传染的

为什么我住的地方一点降价的迹象都没有:cn14:
East Midlands的一个小镇,2bed的bunglow看上的全在220k以上,我都想不明白这房价凭什么这么高

manchster等等北部中部的地区上一个月房价报道涨了10%,这个不奇怪,房价就像在水池里扔一个石子,水波从中心往外发散,看起来伦敦房价涨潮往外发散的波还在影响北部那些城市,等这波过去以后下一波可能就是跌的了。

我从上半年开始就一直在等公投,等房价跌,四月份3% stamp duty surcharge时都没去抢.
我就希望房价反应能快点,再过两年我就搬家了

我跟楼主观点有段不一样,我认为英国跟欧洲肯定会妥协,留在欧洲单一市场,必须要保持人流往来自由,只是欧美跟英国其实互相都很有需要,欧盟也必然会妥协给予英国适当的宽松比如有限制人流或是控制边界或是对开放欧洲其他入英的来往人员的福利。总的趋势还是伦敦的人会越来越多,房子尤其是楼房必然也会越来越紧俏,反而现在观望的态势随着英国欧洲协议的趋向明朗化,如果英国央行在进一步降低利率的话,这样会更加促进房屋市场的发展。总的来说我觉得房价还是会稳健上涨,现在应该是一个比较好的时期做前期的投资。因为越是各种信息的明朗会更加促进楼市以往那种竞争的态势。

我也希望保留single market,但没有实现以前大家都不敢赌。

怎么说呢风险跟收益有时候是成正比的。如果所有都明朗了,那房价也都上来了呢。

欧盟就是一艘破产,难民,恐袭,银行破产危机。脱欧短期震荡,长期应该是利好或者无关大局,关键就看两边怎么谈,有风险有希望。

还准备看teddinton 或者kingston 和putney附近的房子自主 成龙大哥不要吓我。。。。

我预计两年内跌20%

希望如你所愿!